Oscar predictions 2018

Evening all

Well, no one could really have predicted the Envelopegate of 2017's Academy Awards, but I imagine this year's awards will have their own upsets.  I've seen as many of these as I can, and as such, here are my predictions.

Best Actor in a Leading Role
Gary Oldman - Darkest Hour

This one is pretty much nailed on.  Oldman has won every Best Actor gong going for his portrayal of Winston Churchill, and rightly so.  Sorry everyone else.  Not your year.

Best Actress in a Leading Role
Frances McDormand - Three Billboards Outside Ebbing, Missouri

This seems pretty certain too.  Great portrayal of Mildred Hayes, left grieving and seeking justice after the murder of her daughter.  Multi faceted character piece with no definitive rights or wrongs, and no easy solutions.  Some competition from Sally Hawkins in The Shape of Water as the mute Elisa Esposito, but I think this performance secures McDormand's second Oscar.

Best Actor in a Supporting Role
Sam Rockwell - Three Billboards Outside Ebbing, Missouri

Tough call between him and Woody Harrelson, but Rockwell edges it for exactly the same reasons as Frances McDormand.  Honourable mention for Christopher Plummer as a short notice replacement for Kevin Spacey in All the Money in the World.

Best Actress in a Supporting Role
Allison Janney - I, Tonya

Still getting my head around this film, but an absolutely vile performance from Allison Janney as the needling, abusive, bitch of a mother in I, Tonya.  Sorry Octavia Spencer - just edged out of this one.

Best Director
Guillermo Del Toro - The Shape of Water

For a film that goes into the Oscars with the most nominations this year, I don't think it will go home with many, but I do think it will get one of the Big Five.  Specifically, Best Director.  Every scene of that film is like a work of art.

Best Film Editing
Baby Driver

Typically Edgar Wright, the film is so precise.  Milliseconds faster or slower and this film would have been awful, but the editing in Baby Driver is both a science and an art.

Best Music (Original Score)
Alexandre Desplat - The Shape of Water

Best Music (Original Song)
I want it to be Remember Me from Coco, but I think it might go to This is Me from The Greatest Showman.

Best Writing (Adapted Screenplay)
Call Me By Your Name

Best Writing (Original Screenplay)
Three Billboards Outside Ebbing, Missouri 

Best Animated Feature Film
Coco

I'd like to think that Blade Runner 2049 will pick up pretty much all the technical awards, as some sort of apology for the fact that the film itself isn't recognised for Best Film.

Leaving...Best Picture
Oh this is a tough one.  The two main contenders seem to be Three Billboards and The Shape of Water.  Between those two, Three Billboards edges it.  But...but...the Best Picture winners of the 2010s have more often than not been a surprise.  Moonlight won over La La Land, Spotlight won over The Revenant, Argo won over Lincoln, Birdman won over Boyhood.
I don't think it's Phantom Thread, Call Me By Your Name, Lady Bird, Dunkirk or Darkest Hour.
Horror films and fantasy don't win - the only exception to this has been The Return of the King.  So that should rule out The Shape of Water and Get Out.  But Get Out is having a resurgence in popularity, despite coming out well before awards season started.  And it did win the Film Independent Spirit Award - which has correctly predicted the Best Picture for the past four years.

I want The Post to win, and it should if the Academy want to make a political point.  But Best Picture is the only category which is decided by a First Past The Post voting system, which makes a winner by consensus trickier.  That said, it is a film about how the media are ace, and the Academy is a bit of a sucker for that.

Right.  Conclusions.  And these are surprising me even as I type...
Should win: The Post
Will win: I think it might be Get Out.

Gosh.  I'd have voted three times if I could...

The Shape of Water

(Warning: contains spoilers for The Shape of Water)

It's getting closer to the Oscars and one of the big contenders is The Shape of Water, leading with 13 nominations.  Four of those are for "The Big Five" (Best Actor, Actress, Picture, Director and Screenplay - The Shape of Water does not have a nomination for Best Actor).  As a result of this, and as a result of its frankly beautiful trailer, I have been keen to see this for some time.

The Life Aquatic...?

Admittedly, the premise - woman falls in love with sea creature - is not typical movie fare, and certainly not typical Oscar movie fare.  So what makes this different?

Good question.  This is a Guillermo del Toro film, so from the outset it can be assumed that this is a fairy tale featuring monsters (as per Pan's Labyrinth).  As per all fairy tales about monsters, it can also safely be assumed that the monster is probably not the thing that looks like a monster.  It's probably closer to the thing that looks like us.  Or, if it's a film with Michael Shannon in it, it's probably Michael Shannon.  Del Toro has credited some of the inspiration for this film from Creature from the Black Lagoon, but there's also touches of Splash, Amelie, and Buster Keaton/Charlie Chaplin throughout.

The film is told by Giles (Richard Jenkins), a struggling, gay, alcoholic illustrator.  It is about his next door neighbour, Elisa Esposito (Sally Hawkins) - a mute janitor who cleans at a government facility in Baltimore.  One day, a creature (played by Doug Jones) is brought to the facility.  Over time, Elisa develops a relationship with the creature who is being mistreated by the programme director (Michael Shannon).  She begins to plan to help the creature escape.  Aquatic adventures ensue.

The film itself is beautiful.  Set at some point in the early 1960s, it opens with a completely underwater sequence which positions Elisa as a fairytale princess living above a theatre, before draining all the water completely and setting about efficiently sketching Elisa's life - masturbation, eggs, sandwiches, musicals with Giles and working with Zelda (Octavia Spencer).  The colour palette morphs from greens and blues (and teal) to splashes of red when Elisa begins her relationship with the Amphibian Man (that's what's he's called in the credits, so I'll go with that), a fact that was completely lost on my colour-blind husband, who unfortunately perceived the film in mainly sepia tones.  The Amphibian Man himself is quick to light up like a Christmas tree (literally) as soon as he is shown affection.  They literally bring more colour into each others lives.
In direct contrast, it's also worth mentioning the large dollop of body horror in the film too - from Strickland's rotting fingers, to Hoffstetler (Michael Stuhlbarg) having a hole shot in his face, there's a lot to be grossed out by.  There are bits that are definitely not for the squeamish.

Not Abe Sapien.  Definitely not Abe Sapien.

I have read a couple of reviews which have described the relationship between Elisa and the Amphibian Man as that of two outsiders who find love.  I have mixed feelings about this.  In some ways, Elisa can be seen as an outsider because of her muteness.  Similarly, Zelda is an outsider because of her colour, Giles is an outsider because of his sexuality, Hoffstetler is an outsider because he is not American (and the Amphibian Man is an outsider because of not being human).  But Elisa doesn't seem to be lacking anything - she seems content with her life, her job and her friends, and there doesn't seem to be something else that she aspires to or desires.  Nor is there anyone who suggests she is anything less than fine - the closest we come to that is the sinisterly sexual overtones of Strickland (Shannon) who is odious to everyone, not just Elisa.  A different reading of the film is that Elisa and the Amphibian Man are two similar creatures who find each other and find love (the suggestion is made that Elisa is an Amphibian Woman - she was found near water with scars on her neck which may have always been gills).  Conversely, Zelda, Giles and Hoffstetler all think they have found equal partners, but they are all disappointed (and not just because the pie guys pies looked vile).

Mmm...pie.

If I were to make a small criticism, it would be that I didn't understand what the bad guys actually wanted.  If Strickland (or the various other governmental agencies) were experimenting on the Amphibian Man to better understand what he was, that would make more sense.  But Strickland seemed to just be electrocuting him for no discernible reason.  I could also have done with less of the double-crossing-spy-agents storyline.  It didn't particularly add anything to the storyline, and since it's Giles' story to tell, I'm not sure how he would have discerned all that information.  I'm also a little disconcerted that no one bats an eyelid when Elisa starts having a relationship with a sea creature (but it's a del Toro film, so maybe that's fine?).

When the Oscars roll around, I think it's a strong contender for Best Picture but I don't think it will win (fantasy rarely does).  Hawkins may win against Frances McDormand for Best Actress but it's a tough call.  I think Guillermo del Toro may get Best Director.  Alexandre Desplat may win for Best Score.  But I think this may be one of the films that leads in terms of nominations, but walks away with little. 

If that's the case, I'm sure Zelda will have something to say about that...

Additional thoughts, questions, comments:

• Is Elisa selectively mute?  She seems to speak, but that's as part of a fantasy moment - was any of it real?  Is Strickland's assessment that her voicebox has been cut an accurate one?

• Alexandre Desplat created a beautiful score for this film - it sounded a lot like the theme from Up to me, with elements of The King's Speech (another Desplat score).

• Giles' cats seem remarkably forgiving of a creature that eats the head off one of their friends.

• Do green and red represent something?  Giles is asked to paint green jello instead of red; Strickland's candy is green; the pie guy's pie is green.  I should watch this film again...