Oscar predictions 2018

Evening all

Well, no one could really have predicted the Envelopegate of 2017's Academy Awards, but I imagine this year's awards will have their own upsets.  I've seen as many of these as I can, and as such, here are my predictions.

Best Actor in a Leading Role
Gary Oldman - Darkest Hour

This one is pretty much nailed on.  Oldman has won every Best Actor gong going for his portrayal of Winston Churchill, and rightly so.  Sorry everyone else.  Not your year.

Best Actress in a Leading Role
Frances McDormand - Three Billboards Outside Ebbing, Missouri

This seems pretty certain too.  Great portrayal of Mildred Hayes, left grieving and seeking justice after the murder of her daughter.  Multi faceted character piece with no definitive rights or wrongs, and no easy solutions.  Some competition from Sally Hawkins in The Shape of Water as the mute Elisa Esposito, but I think this performance secures McDormand's second Oscar.

Best Actor in a Supporting Role
Sam Rockwell - Three Billboards Outside Ebbing, Missouri

Tough call between him and Woody Harrelson, but Rockwell edges it for exactly the same reasons as Frances McDormand.  Honourable mention for Christopher Plummer as a short notice replacement for Kevin Spacey in All the Money in the World.

Best Actress in a Supporting Role
Allison Janney - I, Tonya

Still getting my head around this film, but an absolutely vile performance from Allison Janney as the needling, abusive, bitch of a mother in I, Tonya.  Sorry Octavia Spencer - just edged out of this one.

Best Director
Guillermo Del Toro - The Shape of Water

For a film that goes into the Oscars with the most nominations this year, I don't think it will go home with many, but I do think it will get one of the Big Five.  Specifically, Best Director.  Every scene of that film is like a work of art.

Best Film Editing
Baby Driver

Typically Edgar Wright, the film is so precise.  Milliseconds faster or slower and this film would have been awful, but the editing in Baby Driver is both a science and an art.

Best Music (Original Score)
Alexandre Desplat - The Shape of Water

Best Music (Original Song)
I want it to be Remember Me from Coco, but I think it might go to This is Me from The Greatest Showman.

Best Writing (Adapted Screenplay)
Call Me By Your Name

Best Writing (Original Screenplay)
Three Billboards Outside Ebbing, Missouri 

Best Animated Feature Film
Coco

I'd like to think that Blade Runner 2049 will pick up pretty much all the technical awards, as some sort of apology for the fact that the film itself isn't recognised for Best Film.

Leaving...Best Picture
Oh this is a tough one.  The two main contenders seem to be Three Billboards and The Shape of Water.  Between those two, Three Billboards edges it.  But...but...the Best Picture winners of the 2010s have more often than not been a surprise.  Moonlight won over La La Land, Spotlight won over The Revenant, Argo won over Lincoln, Birdman won over Boyhood.
I don't think it's Phantom Thread, Call Me By Your Name, Lady Bird, Dunkirk or Darkest Hour.
Horror films and fantasy don't win - the only exception to this has been The Return of the King.  So that should rule out The Shape of Water and Get Out.  But Get Out is having a resurgence in popularity, despite coming out well before awards season started.  And it did win the Film Independent Spirit Award - which has correctly predicted the Best Picture for the past four years.

I want The Post to win, and it should if the Academy want to make a political point.  But Best Picture is the only category which is decided by a First Past The Post voting system, which makes a winner by consensus trickier.  That said, it is a film about how the media are ace, and the Academy is a bit of a sucker for that.

Right.  Conclusions.  And these are surprising me even as I type...
Should win: The Post
Will win: I think it might be Get Out.

Gosh.  I'd have voted three times if I could...