Oscar predictions 2018

Evening all

Well, no one could really have predicted the Envelopegate of 2017's Academy Awards, but I imagine this year's awards will have their own upsets.  I've seen as many of these as I can, and as such, here are my predictions.

Best Actor in a Leading Role
Gary Oldman - Darkest Hour

This one is pretty much nailed on.  Oldman has won every Best Actor gong going for his portrayal of Winston Churchill, and rightly so.  Sorry everyone else.  Not your year.

Best Actress in a Leading Role
Frances McDormand - Three Billboards Outside Ebbing, Missouri

This seems pretty certain too.  Great portrayal of Mildred Hayes, left grieving and seeking justice after the murder of her daughter.  Multi faceted character piece with no definitive rights or wrongs, and no easy solutions.  Some competition from Sally Hawkins in The Shape of Water as the mute Elisa Esposito, but I think this performance secures McDormand's second Oscar.

Best Actor in a Supporting Role
Sam Rockwell - Three Billboards Outside Ebbing, Missouri

Tough call between him and Woody Harrelson, but Rockwell edges it for exactly the same reasons as Frances McDormand.  Honourable mention for Christopher Plummer as a short notice replacement for Kevin Spacey in All the Money in the World.

Best Actress in a Supporting Role
Allison Janney - I, Tonya

Still getting my head around this film, but an absolutely vile performance from Allison Janney as the needling, abusive, bitch of a mother in I, Tonya.  Sorry Octavia Spencer - just edged out of this one.

Best Director
Guillermo Del Toro - The Shape of Water

For a film that goes into the Oscars with the most nominations this year, I don't think it will go home with many, but I do think it will get one of the Big Five.  Specifically, Best Director.  Every scene of that film is like a work of art.

Best Film Editing
Baby Driver

Typically Edgar Wright, the film is so precise.  Milliseconds faster or slower and this film would have been awful, but the editing in Baby Driver is both a science and an art.

Best Music (Original Score)
Alexandre Desplat - The Shape of Water

Best Music (Original Song)
I want it to be Remember Me from Coco, but I think it might go to This is Me from The Greatest Showman.

Best Writing (Adapted Screenplay)
Call Me By Your Name

Best Writing (Original Screenplay)
Three Billboards Outside Ebbing, Missouri 

Best Animated Feature Film
Coco

I'd like to think that Blade Runner 2049 will pick up pretty much all the technical awards, as some sort of apology for the fact that the film itself isn't recognised for Best Film.

Leaving...Best Picture
Oh this is a tough one.  The two main contenders seem to be Three Billboards and The Shape of Water.  Between those two, Three Billboards edges it.  But...but...the Best Picture winners of the 2010s have more often than not been a surprise.  Moonlight won over La La Land, Spotlight won over The Revenant, Argo won over Lincoln, Birdman won over Boyhood.
I don't think it's Phantom Thread, Call Me By Your Name, Lady Bird, Dunkirk or Darkest Hour.
Horror films and fantasy don't win - the only exception to this has been The Return of the King.  So that should rule out The Shape of Water and Get Out.  But Get Out is having a resurgence in popularity, despite coming out well before awards season started.  And it did win the Film Independent Spirit Award - which has correctly predicted the Best Picture for the past four years.

I want The Post to win, and it should if the Academy want to make a political point.  But Best Picture is the only category which is decided by a First Past The Post voting system, which makes a winner by consensus trickier.  That said, it is a film about how the media are ace, and the Academy is a bit of a sucker for that.

Right.  Conclusions.  And these are surprising me even as I type...
Should win: The Post
Will win: I think it might be Get Out.

Gosh.  I'd have voted three times if I could...

The Post

(Warning: contains spoilers for The Post)

It's been a strange year, hasn't it?  I don't think I'm going out on too much of a limb to say that the world in the Trump-era feels a lot more uncertain, and that most of us can't believe that Trump's been president for a year.  Only a year?  Haven't we all aged so much more than that?

It's often interesting to see how current events then shape the artistic, and what we're seeing now can usually be traced back to previous events.  That said, this years awards films feel a little on the "safe" side (with the exception of Get Out which is a surprise nomination).  There's many uncontroversial messages being told well - people overcoming seemingly insurmountable adversity, people seeking redemption, people finding love.  That's all pretty standard fare.   The Post stands out as timely and topical as it draws pointed comparisons between the presidencies of Nixon and Trump - Republican administrations at war with the press.  I'm happy to be corrected, but I think this might be the first (of many) responses to a Trump presidency. 

Postman Pat: the sequel?

The Post tells the story of how a military analyst in Vietnam leaks his classified reports to the papers, and the papers (specifically the Washington Post) decisions about whether or not to publish the findings of those reports.  The reports date back over four Presidential administrations, and are very clear on the following - American politicians knew that they could not win the Vietnam War.  Presidents Truman, Kennedy, Johnson and Nixon were all briefed as such.  They continued to send troops to Vietnam to save face, and tell the American public that America is winning and making great progress.
In "present day" (Nixon administration), Katharine Graham (Meryl Streep) has inherited the Washington Post and is trying to make it financially stable by floating it on the Stock Market.  She is close friends with various politicians and other people of public significance.  She and chief editor Ben Bradlee (Tom Hanks) find themselves in receipt of the leaked papers and must weigh up the consequences of what they decide to do with them.  Moral dilemmas ensue.

In some ways, it seems like Steven Spielberg has specifically stopped everything that he was doing in order to make this film.  Right now.  He's said as much.  In other ways, it's the latest in a line of Spielberg films which point out that the U.S. has a Constitution that was put in place for a reason and should be followed as such (Lincoln, Bridge of Spies).  There is a real sense of urgency and consequence throughout, heightened by the trappings of the time (Journalist Ben Bagdikian - Bob Odenkirk - goes to get a tip off on a payphone, but drops the quarters that he needs to keep the call going; decisions need to be made in order to hit the deadlines for the day - newspapers being created by typesetting; Daniel Ellsberg - Matthew Rhys - stealing actual cumbersome physical files, rather than the memory stick and digital file equivalents of the Snowden era).   
There has been some criticism that the writing is a little too on-the-nose in places, and that the audience are spoonfed a little too much, rather than being allowed to actively come to their own conclusions.  Comparisons are made to 1976's All the President's Men (a film I haven't seen yet, but I understand that it credits the audience with a little more discernment and intelligence) but I would argue that in 2018, audiences need something sharp and on point to cut through the endless cacophony and vagaries.  There will be time for allegory and metaphor later.  For now, there is definitely a need for being deliberately reminded of things like "free press serves the governed, not the governing".  There is also a need for these things to be said by some of America's most trusted people (Hanks, Streep, Spielberg).

I have an idea...

Let's turn our attention to that cast.  In real life, Meryl Streep has already been called "highly overrated" by the current President following her criticism of him last year.  In The Post, she is on top form as Katharine Graham and has been Oscar nominated as such.  Her story is a concise portrayal of the issues of gender inequality - constantly being undermined and devalued in a sea of men (pointed out by Sarah Paulson as Tony Bradlee).  There's some sneaky direction throughout her transformation from hesitant to confident.  The first half of the film is shot from above, with Streep looking tiny and subservient.  She's made more vulnerable in a series of meetings where someone (usually Hanks) arrives unexpectedly at her house while she's in a nightdress (and uncomfortably trying to pay attention while hiding bare flesh behind throw cushions).  By the end, she is shot from below in white and gold (albeit, bizarre looking) garments which make her look like a goddess and not to be trifled with.

What *is* this garment?

"This is MY paper" she eventually squeaks out.  "Not my father's and not my ex-husband's.  It's mine [and I'm in charge]".  It's a reminder that the decisions of history are not arrived at easily.
Tom Hanks, in the meantime, has not publically suffered the wrath of Trump, but has been quietly critical in a more subtle way.  His verbal sparring with Streep throughout is enjoyable, and it's strange to think that these two actors have not been in any previous films before.  While Streep's Graham shows uncertainty in herself and her decisions, Hanks's Bradlee constantly lays down all the pertinent facts needed to come to a decision.  It's difficult to see why Hanks (and Spielberg for that matter) have not been equally nominated alongside Streep - perhaps the Academy are confused by a role in which Hanks smokes like a chimney and drops a lot of f-bombs.

No Tom!  Stop swearing.

Actually, to take this a step further, this film doesn't seem to be getting a lot of love and I'm unsure why.  The combination of Streep, Hanks and Spielberg fighting for truth, justice and the American way is magnificent, and yet I've struggled to see it at the local cinemas around here.  I'm clearly not in the minority, if the monologue for this years Golden Globes is anything to go by (from 5:03).

That is not to say that this film is perfect.  It takes a while to get going, and in places there's some details which are specific to American audiences (an issue, I imagine, which is the same in reverse in films like Darkest Hour).  The New York Times have also been critical that they are essentially side lined in a story that could have been theirs.  The film also, I think, could benefit from spending a bit more time with Ellsberg - this starts off by being his story, but he is forgotten about quite quickly.  This is a real shame, because he is never considered in the decisions to print (or not to print).  At one point, he was facing a prison sentence of 115 years as a result of his actions - surely a fact worth noting?  But I can also see the rationale behind these decisions - this story itself is not about the people involved, it's about the freedom of the press and upholding of the Constitution.    

    

For my money, The Post is the film that should win Best Picture at this year's Oscars (well, actually, it should be Blade Runner 2049, and it's frankly ridiculous that it's not even nominated).  If the Academy want to make a point to the increasingly fascist Donald Trump, then this should win.  His adulation of Hollywood, and desire to be popular are both sore points and worth poking.  And surely he should approve?  I hear he's very much against "fake news"?

Additional comments, thoughts, questions:

• Apparently the film was originally called "The Papers".  In hindsight, a much better title.  Sorry Steven.

• This marks John Williams' 28th collaboration with Steven Spielberg.  He's 86 and still composing great music.  I have trouble walking and chewing gum.

• Ben Bagdikian isn't credited much in this film, but should be.  He is famously quoted as telling students at Berkeley University "Never forget that your obligation is to the people. It is not, at heart, to those who pay you, or to your editor, or to your sources, or to your friends, or to the advancement of your career. It is to the public." - that's the throughstory of this film.  Turns out that Ben Bagdikian should have his own film.  Google him.