Oscar predictions 2017

As previously mentioned, I am a sucker for an awards film, and the Oscars is biggest film award.  Duly, I have watched as many of these as possible and so here are my predictions for tonight's Oscars.  Some of them are little more than a coin toss, though.  Some difficult categories to choose from.  But here's what I think...

Best Picture:
La La Land
There's nothing else nominated that looks like it or sounds like it, and it comes as a welcome relief in a year where the overall theme of these movies seems to be grief.  Plus Hollywood likes to award prizes to films about Hollywood, and La La Land is that film.
There's an outside chance it might be Moonlight, but my money's on La La Land.

Best Actor in a Leading Role:
Denzel Washington (Fences)
This is one of the categories that is a coin toss.  It's between Washington and Casey Affleck (Manchester By The Sea).  Both dominate their films, and both are great performances.  The difference is this: Affleck's is a quiet, subtle, barely-hanging-in-there performance, and Washington's is bolder and brassier and more in your face.  I couldn't easily pick out the scene in Manchester by the Sea that you would point at and say "that, there, defining moment". 

Best Actress in a Leading Role:
Emma Stone (La La Land)
Another coin toss.  It's between Stone and Natalie Portman (Jackie).  It feels like Emma Stone has spent the past couple of years paying her dues in comedy, then moving into award nominations (Birdman), and this will scrape her the award.  Portman's portrayal is fantastic, but maybe a touch too alienating? 

Best Actor in a Supporting Role:
Mahershala Ali (Moonlight)
I'll be honest, it's not a film I've seen, but this seems to be where the hype is.

Best Actress in a Supporting Role:
Viola Davis (Fences)
I was rooting for Octavia Spencer (Hidden Figures) until I saw Fences.  Great performance, and it takes a lot to be able to stand next to Denzel Washington, match him and not get overshadowed. 

Animated Feature Film:
Zootopia/Zootropolis
One of the best films of last year.

Best Cinematography:
La La Land

Costume Design:
Jackie

Best Directing:
Damien Chazelle (La La Land)

Documentary:
13th (Ava DuVernay)

Best Music (Original Score):
La La Land

Best Original Song:
City of Stars (La La Land)

Best Short Film (animated):
Piper

Best Adapted Screenplay:
Arrival (I want Arrival to win something - it was fantastic)

Best Original Screenplay:
La La Land

La La Land

(Warning: contains spoilers for La La Land,

Hello and happy new year.  It's January, which means one thing (according to the trailers for this film) - Oscars season!  Disclaimer from the outset - I am a sucker for awards fodder.  This year is no exception.  While a lot of the films for the rest of the year are a smorgasbord of candyfloss and tapas (and that one thing that you tried because you were curious and you weren't sure what it was exactly), Oscars season is just steak.  Good, solid, substance to get your teeth into.  Fine by me.

This year seems to be a plethora of heavy duty T-bone, though.  Everything seems to be death (Jackie, Manchester by the Sea), war and death (Hacksaw Ridge), or emotional trauma  (and possibly death, I'm not sure) (Lion).  And it's not like you can find much sweetness and light in real life at the moment (death of hope, dreams and sanity as we know it).

So, thank goodness then for La La Land, popping into a gloomy January with Technicolor singing and dancing in the Los Angeles sunshine.  This is Damien Chazelle's writing and directing follow up to 2014's Whiplash (a fantastic film which is a walking stress-dream and well worth your while if you haven't already seen it).  La La Land stars Ryan Gosling (Sebastian) and Emma Stone (Mia) in their third film together (the other two being Crazy, Stupid, Love and Gangster Squad).  Sebastian is an idealistic (but flat broke) jazz pianist, who keeps bumping into Mia, the barista aspiring to be an actress.  They meet-cute, meet-cute, and meet-cute again before tentatively starting a relationship and encouraging each other to stop doubting and follow their dreams (with some more singing and dancing thrown in for good measure).

Well, that's lovely isn't it?  Not according to Damien Chazelle.  A few themes recur from Whiplash.
1.  I LOVE JAZZ!  JAZZ IS BRILLIANT!  JAZZ!  JAAAAAAZZZZZ!
2.  You can be brilliant at the thing you love, or you can be happy.  Make a choice.

Hmm.  Slightly less lovely.  Mia and Sebastian consider their options, encourage each other, make their decisions and live with the consequences.  For better or worse.

So, what do I think?  I loved it.  It already feels like an iconic film, and one that will be referenced back to in the arts (in their varying forms) for years to come.  It looks beautifully stylised, it sounds fantastic, there is a definite "stickiness" to its soundtrack.  Gosling and Stone are fun and sparky, and enjoyable to watch.  It's frequently surprising because it fiddles with convention with fantasy elements.  It's a fraction too long, and for a film that's so sharp it could be leaner (which is partially as a result of it's structure - scenes in a play, rather than a continuously linear film).
Film lovers will catch the references and homages to other films - I count Sliding Doors, Singing in the Rain, Casablanca, Up, Fame, Dangerous Minds (meets the O.C.).  I imagine there's a lot more.  To me, if Moulin Rouge and When Harry Met Sally had a child it would be La La Land.

And for the meta-critics amongst us, there's this exchange:
Sebastian:  I love it.
Mia:  You don't think it's too nostalgic?
Sebastian:  Nostalgia is great?
Mia:  What if people don't like it?
Sebastian:   Fuck 'em.

Thanks, La La Land.  Very helpful of you.

And if you're still not sure - watch this trailer.  This is the Marmite test.  Enjoy.

Additional thoughts, comments and questions:

1.  I think there's some kind of colour coding in the film.  Blue seems to signify winning - it's the colours in Seb's club, the colours Mia wears when she successfully auditions.  Red is also a successful colour, but I'm not sure how it differs from blue.  Yellow seems to be the colour that keeps them apart - the colour of the casting directors clothes, the band's touring clothes, Mia's general cynicism.  There seems to definitely be a language there, but I haven't quite worked it out fully yet.  That is something that will take multiple viewings.  Which I am delighted about.

Or it's an homage to the Teletubbies

2.  The reason it's a 12A: one use of the word "fuck".

3.  For discussion: does this film end happily ever after?