Oscar predictions 2017

As previously mentioned, I am a sucker for an awards film, and the Oscars is biggest film award.  Duly, I have watched as many of these as possible and so here are my predictions for tonight's Oscars.  Some of them are little more than a coin toss, though.  Some difficult categories to choose from.  But here's what I think...

Best Picture:
La La Land
There's nothing else nominated that looks like it or sounds like it, and it comes as a welcome relief in a year where the overall theme of these movies seems to be grief.  Plus Hollywood likes to award prizes to films about Hollywood, and La La Land is that film.
There's an outside chance it might be Moonlight, but my money's on La La Land.

Best Actor in a Leading Role:
Denzel Washington (Fences)
This is one of the categories that is a coin toss.  It's between Washington and Casey Affleck (Manchester By The Sea).  Both dominate their films, and both are great performances.  The difference is this: Affleck's is a quiet, subtle, barely-hanging-in-there performance, and Washington's is bolder and brassier and more in your face.  I couldn't easily pick out the scene in Manchester by the Sea that you would point at and say "that, there, defining moment". 

Best Actress in a Leading Role:
Emma Stone (La La Land)
Another coin toss.  It's between Stone and Natalie Portman (Jackie).  It feels like Emma Stone has spent the past couple of years paying her dues in comedy, then moving into award nominations (Birdman), and this will scrape her the award.  Portman's portrayal is fantastic, but maybe a touch too alienating? 

Best Actor in a Supporting Role:
Mahershala Ali (Moonlight)
I'll be honest, it's not a film I've seen, but this seems to be where the hype is.

Best Actress in a Supporting Role:
Viola Davis (Fences)
I was rooting for Octavia Spencer (Hidden Figures) until I saw Fences.  Great performance, and it takes a lot to be able to stand next to Denzel Washington, match him and not get overshadowed. 

Animated Feature Film:
Zootopia/Zootropolis
One of the best films of last year.

Best Cinematography:
La La Land

Costume Design:
Jackie

Best Directing:
Damien Chazelle (La La Land)

Documentary:
13th (Ava DuVernay)

Best Music (Original Score):
La La Land

Best Original Song:
City of Stars (La La Land)

Best Short Film (animated):
Piper

Best Adapted Screenplay:
Arrival (I want Arrival to win something - it was fantastic)

Best Original Screenplay:
La La Land